RICHMOND 鈥 It wasn鈥檛 the stereotypical political event: no buses, no signs, no impassioned speeches. Instead, there was Lt. Gov. at the door of Antioch Baptist Church, greeting congregants as they came for the 10 a.m. service at the Fairfax County church.
She asked the kids what they wanted to be and wished the adults well, and then took a seat a couple of rows in from the pulpit, where Pastor Kevin Taylor welcomed the congregation鈥檚 guest. During his sermon he reminded the congregation to be sure to vote 鈥 without saying anything about who to vote for.
On the campaign trail bidding to be Virginia鈥檚 next governor, Earle-Sears, a devout evangelical Christian who on Monday held an online prayer call for the flood victims in Texas, pauses regularly to worship with fellow believers.
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鈥淕od is a consuming fire for me,鈥 she wrote in her 2023 memoir, 鈥淗ow Sweet It Is: Defending the American Dream,鈥 adding: 鈥淲hen He speaks to me, He speaks to me. I will not deny this.鈥
Like the rest of the Republican鈥檚 campaign so far, her church visits have been low-key, low-profile moments.
But they are an easygoing way to let people get to know her.
鈥淚鈥檓 going to have to go back and do a little reading,鈥 said Sandra Streeter, a member of Antioch Baptist, who said she doesn鈥檛 really follow politics and did not know Earle-Sears. 鈥淏ut I do plan to,鈥 she said, of her new self-assigned homework.
鈥淚t鈥檚 nice to have her, and her representation,鈥 said Joyce Stockton. She said she wasn鈥檛 that familiar with Earle-Sears and seemed to like what she saw that Sunday, especially 鈥渉er personality.鈥
Earle-Sears would be the first Black woman elected governor of any state. In 2021, she received 5,200 fewer votes than Glenn Youngkin did at the top of the Republican ticket, a typical result in statewide elections. Exit polls showed Youngkin received support from 13% of Black voters.
Democrat Hala Ayala, a Latina who lost to Earle-Sears, received 8,000 more votes than former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, who lost to Youngkin in his attempt to return to the executive mansion.
During the 2020 presidential campaign, Earle-Sears sought to galvanize African American support for President Donald Trump as national chairwoman of Black Americans to Re-elect the President PAC. She broke from Trump after the 2022 congressional midterms, saying it was time for the GOP to move on, but later reconciled with Trump and vocally backed his 2024 presidential bid.
This year, getting to know Earle-Sears has been a big early focus of her campaign.
She jumped in early on TV, spending $295,000 on TV ads over three weeks in late May and early June: relatively softly toned messages stressing her life story more than her strongly held political views. Her Democratic opponent, Abigail Spanberger, didn鈥檛 hit the airwaves until late June and has so far spent $373,000, data compiled by the Virginia Public Access Project shows.
While Spanberger recently finished a 40-stop bus tour with rallies across the state, Earle-Sears鈥 efforts have been less public.
Her most public campaign events have been a formal kickoff in Richmond on primary election day, a rally in Vienna with Republican candidate for lieutenant governor John Reid and Attorney General Jason Miyares, and stops this week at a car dealership in Christiansburg, where she underscored her call for an end to the car tax, and a trip Friday to a shipbuilding site in Newport News.
Much of Earle-Sears鈥 effort has been with small, private gatherings, often at supporters鈥 homes. These tend to feature sociable one-on-one chats and a chance for photos, with the candidate鈥檚 comments generally focusing on the state鈥檚 economic progress under what she often calls the (Gov. Glenn) Youngkin-Sears administration before a pitch for financial support, Republicans say.
Facing an opponent in Spanberger who鈥檚 raised $22.8 million to her $9.2 million, building up a war chest for the campaign to come is necessarily a priority, political scientists say.
They鈥檙e not so sure about the hopes of many Republicans, that Earle-Sears鈥 shared beliefs with many evangelical Black Christians will help her bring more Black voters to the polls to vote for GOP candidates.
鈥淪he is likely to retain strong support among Black conservative voters. However, her influence may be limited among Black moderate voters, despite frequent outreach efforts such as visits to Black churches,鈥 said Olusoji Akomolafe, chair of the political science department at Norfolk State University.
Moderate Black voters constitute a larger part of the electorate than their conservative peers, he said.
On one key issue, abortion, surveys show a big majority of Black voters take a different view than she does, Akomolafe said. A Pew Research survey this year reported 71% of Black Protestants thought abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 70% of Black respondents felt that way in last year鈥檚 Public Religion Research Institution American Values survey.
Akomolafe said Black churches that focus on younger believers often adopt more moderate or progressive stances on certain social issues compared with their more traditional counterparts.
On those issues, 鈥減astors and church leaders seeking to engage younger members sometimes take a more nuanced or inclusive approach to topics such as sexuality, gender roles and abortion,鈥 Akomolafe said.
Still, sharing worship services with Black congregations can achieve other meaningful objectives, he said.
鈥淔or instance, she can use them to highlight her Jamaican heritage, which may have a stronger connection with voters than her position on abortion rights. Additionally, it may be more helpful for her to moderate her rhetoric or place greater emphasis on economic issues and her military experience,鈥 he said.
Del. Michael Jones, D-Richmond, who has endorsed Spanberger and is pastor at Village of Faith Ministries, said that while some see messages in the Bible about abortion or other culture wars issues, 鈥淲hat people care about is the things of daily life, can I pay the bills, how are the schools doing, health care, and that鈥檚 what they think about when they vote.
鈥淐hristians look at the life of Jesus and his message to feed the hungry, care for the poor 鈥 that鈥檚 not what we hear from Republicans.鈥
Jones joined Spanberger at a roundtable with Black faith leaders at Virginia Union University earlier this month to discuss their priorities, including support for schools and countering Trump Administration cuts to social safety net programs, such as Medicaid. Spanberger held a similar roundtable in Norfolk.
Spanberger鈥檚 campaign said she has joined services at dozens of predominantly Black churches across the state.
While many Black Pentecostals have for generations been intentionally apolitical, orienting themselves away from political issues to focus on moral issues and hope of heaven, their faith鈥檚 teachings on the obligation to do good in the world has been leading many to became more engaged in current affairs, Dara Delgado, an Allegheny College professor of religious studies and history, has written.
But last year, many came out for Kamala Harris rather than Donald Trump. Some conservative believers in the Baptist tradition, meanwhile, are leaving the Southern Baptist Convention over differences on social and political issues, especially around race, she added.
鈥淲hether Earle-Sears has demonstrated an ability to cut into Black support for a white Democrat may be debatable,鈥 said John McGlennon, a political scientist at the College of William and Mary. 鈥淪he did not show much ability to convert Black voters in her successful run four years ago.
鈥淪o-called culture warriors have been frustrated by their inability to create a biracial coalition opposed to abortion rights, gay marriage and other social issues,鈥 McGlennon said.
鈥淲hile some Black congregations may support these agendas, Black voters overall are not so different in taking a more socially liberal point of view and tend to prioritize civil rights, economic liberalism, and inclusion, equity, and overcoming remnants of discrimination,鈥 McGlennon said.